NHC Eastern North Pacific

17 June 2025

• Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
  416
  ABPZ20 KNHC 171137
  TWOEP
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  500 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025
  
  For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
  
  Active Systems:
  The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
  upgraded Tropical Storm Erick, located in the eastern Pacific
  basin several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
  
  &&
  Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
  header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
  Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
  header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Hagen
• Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
  ...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE APPROACHING THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.1, -93.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
• Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 3a
  Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

  451 
  WTPZ35 KNHC 171144
  TCPEP5
   
  BULLETIN
  Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
  600 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
   
  ...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE 
  APPROACHING THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO...
   
   
  SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
  ----------------------------------------------
  LOCATION...12.1N 93.8W
  ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
  PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
   
   
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS
  --------------------
  CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
   
  None.
   
  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
   
  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
  * Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado
   
  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
  * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz
   
  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
  within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
  before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
  winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
  dangerous.
   
  A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
  possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
   
  A hurricane warning will likely be required for a portion 
  of the coast later today.  Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico 
  should monitor the progress of this system.
   
  For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
  products issued by your national meteorological service.
   
   
  DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
  ----------------------
  At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
  located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 93.8 West.  Erick is
  moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A slower
  west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few
  days.  On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the
  coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night.
   
  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
  gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
  become a hurricane on Wednesday.
   
  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
  from the center.
   
  The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
   
   
  HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
  ----------------------
  Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
  Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
  WTPZ45 KNHC.
   
  RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 5 to
  10 inches, with maximum totals of 15 inches, across the Mexican
  states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero and coastal sections of
  Guatemala.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
  mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
   
  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches
  are possible across interior portions of Southeast Mexico, El
  Salvador, interior Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
  Tabasco and Veracruz.
   
  For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
  Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
  Total Rainfall Graphic available at
  hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
   
  WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
  by Wednesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
  tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday.
   
  STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
  the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.  The surge
  will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
   
  SURF:  Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
  coast of southern Mexico in a day or so.  These swells are likely to
  cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
  consult products from your local weather office.
   
   
  NEXT ADVISORY
  -------------
  Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
   
  $$
  Forecaster Berg

• Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 3
  Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025

  392 
  WTPZ25 KNHC 170845
  TCMEP5
   
  TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025
  0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
   
  TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  93.6W AT 17/0900Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
   
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT
   
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
  34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
  4 M SEAS.... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
   
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  93.6W AT 17/0900Z
  AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  93.3W
   
  FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.5N  94.4W
  MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.2N  95.3W
  MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
  50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
  34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.0N  96.4W
  MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
  64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
  34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.3N  97.6W
  MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
  64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
  34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N  99.0W...INLAND
  MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
  64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
  50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
  34 KT... 40NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W...INLAND
  MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
   
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
  ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
  MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
   
  OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
   
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  93.6W
   
  INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1200Z
   
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
   
  $$
  FORECASTER PASCH/GIBBS

• Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 3
  Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

  000
  WTPZ45 KNHC 170848
  TCDEP5
   
  Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   3
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
  300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
  
  Satellite imagery shows that the system is gradually becoming 
  better organized.  TAFB determined a Dvorak data T-number of T2.5 
  which is confirmed from a spiral banding measurement of roughly a 
  0.5 wrap on enhanced IR images.  Therefore, the intensity estimate 
  is set at 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone is being named.
  
  Based on the latest center fixes, the motion remains 300/10 kt, as 
  in the previous advisory.  A mid-level ridge to the north of the 
  storm is forecast to weaken a bit by the global models, and this 
  should result in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a 
  slower forward speed.  The track guidance is in fairly good 
  agreement and similar to the previous model runs.  It should 
  be noted that the complexity of the track moving parallel to the 
  coast of southern Mexico means that small changes in the system's 
  heading will cause substantial differences in where and when the 
  most significant wind impacts will occur.  The official track 
  forecast is close to the various consensus solutions including the 
  FSU Superensemble.  Users are reminded that the average 60-hour NHC 
  track error is a little more than 60 n mi.
  
  Erick is situated in an atmospheric and oceanic environment which 
  appears to be very conducive for strengthening, with low shear, 
  water temperatures near 29 deg C and mid-tropospheric humidities of 
  75-80 percent.  The official intensity forecast is a little higher 
  than the previous one, but some of the numerical guidance shows 
  even more strengthening than that.  Moreover, the various Rapid 
  Intensification (RI) indices show a significant chance for RI 
  before landfall.  Thus, the NHC forecast for the peak strength of 
  Erick could be conservative.
  
   
  KEY MESSAGES:
   
  1. Erick is expected to strengthen significantly before 
  reaching the coast of southern Mexico, where a Hurricane Watch is 
  in effect.
   
  2. Erick will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of 
  Central America and southern Mexico through this week. 
  Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
  areas of steep terrain.
   
  3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the 
  center crosses the coast.
   
   
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  17/0900Z 11.9N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
   12H  17/1800Z 12.5N  94.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
   24H  18/0600Z 13.2N  95.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
   36H  18/1800Z 14.0N  96.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
   48H  19/0600Z 15.3N  97.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
   60H  19/1800Z 16.8N  99.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
   72H  20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
   96H  21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
   
  $$
  Forecaster Pasch

• Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
  Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025

  000
  FOPZ15 KNHC 170846
  PWSEP5
                                                                      
  TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025               
  0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025                                            
                                                                      
  AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
  LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
  WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                      
  WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
      OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
  64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
   
  SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
   
  P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
   
  BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
   
  MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)
  MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
  MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
   
  L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   2(21)   X(21)
  L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
  L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
   
  ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  27(30)   1(31)   X(31)
  ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
  ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
   
  15N 100W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)  12(30)   1(31)   X(31)
  15N 100W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  15N 100W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
   
  ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)  53(68)   X(68)   X(68)
  ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)   X(29)   X(29)
  ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)
   
  P MALDONADO    34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  39(46)  37(83)   X(83)   X(83)
  P MALDONADO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  43(55)   X(55)   X(55)
  P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  25(28)   X(28)   X(28)
   
  P ANGEL        34  1   6( 7)  24(31)  34(65)   5(70)   X(70)   X(70)
  P ANGEL        50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)
  P ANGEL        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
   
  HUATULCO       34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  23(32)   4(36)   X(36)   X(36)
  HUATULCO       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  10N 95W        34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
   
  15N 95W        34  1  19(20)  18(38)   6(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
  15N 95W        50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
   
  SALINA CRUZ    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  P SAN JOSE     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER PASCH