17 June 2025
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171730
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
...ERICK STRENGTHENING... As of 12:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.6, -94.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 4a
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
195
WTPZ35 KNHC 171746
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
1200 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
...ERICK STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 94.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later
today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Erick.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 94.1 West. Erick is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today,
followed by a faster northwestward motion Wednesday through Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach
the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be
near the coast on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight
or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major
hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico
Wednesday night and Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to
16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8
inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane
watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
937
WTPZ25 KNHC 171443
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 93.9W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 94.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
472
WTPZ45 KNHC 171445
TCDEP5
Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
Erick's structure continues to show signs of organization, with a
partial 0819 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass possibly showing the initial
development of an inner core. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt, and the latest objective ADT estimate
is just over 40 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial
intensity is raised to 40 kt.
Erick appears to have slowed down a bit and is moving
west-northwestward (300 degrees) at 8 kt. The storm is reaching
the western extent of a mid-level ridge to the north, with a
mid-/upper-level trough located over northern Mexico. These
features should cause Erick to turn northwestward later today, with
that trajectory continuing for the next 3 days. Speed-wise, the
cyclone is likely to move at its slowest (around 6 kt) this evening
but then gradually accelerate during the next several days.
Although the models are in good agreement on the general track of
Erick, the storm's parallel trajectory to the coast of Mexico will
play an important role in exactly which areas receive the most
significant wind and surge impacts. The updated NHC track forecast
has been nudged westward, and generally lies between the HCCA and
TVCE consensus aids.
The environment appears ideal for rapid strengthening. Vertical
shear is expected to be very low, with the cyclone moving over
waters of around 29 degrees Celsius and within a moist
mid-level environment of around 80 percent relative humidity.
As a result of these conditions, Rapid intensification (RI) indices
are rather high, particular for the 36- and 48-hour periods. The
NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI occurring while Erick
approaches the coast of southern Mexico, with a 48-hour intensity
just below major hurricane strength. Despite this increase in the
forecast intensity, there are still a few models (including the
normally skillful HCCA aid) that show Erick reaching major
hurricane strength, and additional upward adjustments in the
forecast could be required later today.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast
of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is now in
effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca. A hurricane watch is
in effect for portions of the Guerrero coast.
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 12.3N 94.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg/Mora
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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
494
FOPZ15 KNHC 171445
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) X(26) X(26)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 100W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 22(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37)
15N 100W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 36(44) 26(70) X(70) X(70)
ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) X(40) X(40)
ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20)
P MALDONADO 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 47(79) 8(87) X(87) X(87)
P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 12(57) X(57) X(57)
P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33)
P ANGEL 34 2 18(20) 49(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
P ANGEL 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HUATULCO 34 X 6( 6) 32(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45)
HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
10N 95W 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 95W 34 4 31(35) 11(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
15N 95W 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SALINA CRUZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
TAPACHULA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P SAN JOSE 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BERG